Future orientation
In order to analyze how future-oriented companies, jobs, or countries (or many other things) are, the HRForecast skill library offers a metric for the level of future orientation of each skill. The future orientation is determined by both, a market as well as an expert view, precisely:
- skill frequency trends in our data (e.g. job demand, patents, scientific journals)
- the impact or relationship of a skill to a mega trend (e.g. big data, agile work, 3D printing)
- regular, evaluations and validations by field experts and universities.
This future orientation is available for every skill in the levels described below.
Decreasing future importance
- Assembler (programming)
- Diesel engines
- Coal generators
- Interviewing techniques
- Microsoft Word
Stable future importance
- Microsoft Excel
- Microsoft PowerPoint
- Adobe Photoshop
- German
Increasing future importance
- neural networks
- consultative selling
- marketing automation
- oncology
- connected thinking
- robotics
Below you can find examples & details on the future orientation rating.
Mega trends
A skill that is either directly or indirectly related to a mega trend is also considered more future-oriented than a skill without any direct or indirect relationship to a trend.
Example: The Scrum skill—an agile process framework—is directly connected with the agile work trend. The Python skill—a programming language—has a direct relationship to multiple mega trends, such as information security and artificial intelligence. Hence, Scrum and Python are more future-oriented than a skill without any direct or indirect relationship to a trend, such as the German language).
Frequency trends
If the occurrence of a skill in our data increases over time, the demand for this particular skill is rising. It indicates that there are more job posts demanding the skill and more patents or scientific publications dealing with this skill. This makes the skill more future-oriented since a rising demand is considered to be an indicator of increasing skill importance.
Example: The English and Mandarin languages have been demanded more frequently in recent years, while the German language has been searched less often. Hence, English and Mandarin show increasing future importance, while German remains stable (there are also languages with decreasing future importance).
The future-orientation prediction horizon stretches between 3-5 years, whereas in technology, the cycles tend to be around a maximum of 3 years.
Together with universities, we have assessed if the future orientation score of a skill has an impact on the valuation of companies.
Therefore, the stock price of 127 companies was taken into account and compared to the future orientation of their job posts. The analysis was conducted in the time frame from October 2017 to October 2019.
Laggards
Share price development
-11%
two-year trend
23 firms
Early birds
Share price development
-5%
two-year trend
28 firms
Innovators
Share price development
+19%
two-year trend
25 firms
Here are the characteristics of the three company’s clusters.
Laggards
- slow innovation rate (e.g. low number of filed patents)
- slow pace of technology adoption
- conventional or simple business processes
- strong competition from emerging countries or startups
- higher volatility in market performance
- likely to be hit by (short-term) economic shocks
Early birds
- business models moving towards digital transformation
- collaboration with startups and innovative firms
- willingness to look at a long-term perspective
- despite profitability, strong need to adjust business model
Innovators
- high investment in employee upskilling and future-oriented skills
- implementing agile methods and scalable business models
- focus on sophisticated technologies and business processes
- more likely to disrupt business models than to follow behind
There are three ways of using the future orientation score.
External vs. external benchmarking
Internal vs. external benchmarking
Company-to-company comparison
Comparison of the future score of your company with other companies (e.g. by comparing job posts)
Examples:
- your company < > direct competitors
- your company < > best-in-class companies
Focus:
- assessment of future-fit of your company
- understand how your company compares to the market
- identification of best practices (same or across the industry)
Business function comparison
Comparison of the future score of a specific business function at your company with the same business area at other companies (e.g. by comparing job posts).
Examples:
- your HR positions < > HR positions on the labor market
- your IT positions < > IT positions on the labor market
Focus:
- detection of white spots (e.g. missing jobs or skills in your company)
- identification of alternative operating/organizational models
- insights on future trends, jobs, and skills
Job role comparison
Comparison of the future score of a specific job role at your company with the same job role at other companies (e.g. by comparing job posts).
Examples:
- your controllers < > controllers on the labor market
- your mechanics < > mechanics on the labor market
Focus:
- description of duties and hard/soft skills of profiles (see future job profiles)
- detection of correlations between jobs for re- and upskilling
- obtain direct feedback for recruiting and development
Here are examples of internal vs. external comparisons by company.
Your company
15%
Future score
Direct competitors
25%
Future score
Best practices
40%
Future score
- On average, your company has a 10%-points lower future score than your direct competitors and is trailing far behind best-practices (25%-points). This could lead to challenges in terms of competitiveness and the drive to innovate.
- One solution might be to review the job posts in regards to future-fit to support upskilling from the outside-in and to avoid hiring the wrong talent.
- Another solution might be to review your internal skill management for white-spots. White-spots can be caused by a lack of strategic foresight in the company or by a misalignment between talent management and the company strategy.
Here are examples of internal vs. external comparisons by business function.
HR at your company
21%
Future score
HR on the labor market
18%
Future score
- On average, employees in HR positions at your company have a slightly more future-oriented skillset than open HR positions on the labor market ask for.
- Still, this score is relatively low compared to other, more digital business areas. Knowing that your company is already on the right path, this should motivate your company to invest into more future-oriented knowledge and processes within your HR division in order to stay ahead of the competition and to close the gap to more digital business areas.
Here are examples of internal vs. external comparisons by job role.
Financial controllers at your company
23%
Future score
Financial controllers on the labor market
31%
Future score
- Financial controllers at your company seem to miss out on some future-oriented knowledge that is currently demanded on the labor market by other companies.
- A detailed analysis of the internally available skills at those positions will be valuable to find out where processes, skillsets, and therefore the future-orientation of respective employees can be improved.
- The most future-oriented job descriptions on the market can be a good baseline to rework your own job description and target pictures
Internal vs. internal benchmarking
Business function comparison
Comparison of the future score of a specific business area with a similar business area at your company.
- DO: your IT division < > your eCommerce division
- DON’T: your IT division < > your HR division
Focus:
- identification of best practices inside your company
- detection of skill fits and hence, development potentials between different functions
Job role comparison
Comparison of the future score of a specific job role with a similar job role at your company.
- DO: your controllers < > your finance managers
- DON’T: your controllers < > your recruiters
Focus:
- detection of correlations between jobs for re- and upskilling
- alignment of job descriptions towards a more future-oriented target picture
- creation of a common fact-basis for discussions with leaders
If you compare future scores internally, you need to consider that it can only be done for similar areas or roles.
For example, an aircraft engineer is not directly comparable to an HR manager because the roles are very distinct regarding their tasks & requirements.
Find below examples of internal vs. internal comparisons by business function.
IT division at your company
32%
Future score
eCommerce division at your company
25%
Future score
- As the IT division holds similar positions to the eCommerce division, these two business areas are comparable regarding their future score.
- The eCommerce division seems to lack some relevant knowledge that is available in the IT division. In the next step, leaders from both functions can be brought together to discuss, how development measures to close the gap can be created.
Find below examples of internal vs. internal comparisons by job role.
Cyber security managers at your company
35%
Future score
Software developers at your company
29%
Future score
- Cyber security managers at your company provide a slightly more future-oriented skillset than software developers.
- A reason for that might be that it is crucial for cyber security managers to stay up-to-date with current market developments so that they react accordingly to possible data breaches
- Software developers can start undergoing similar training programs as cyber security managers
- Additionally, cross-functional teams, mentoring or developing individuals to and from the different jobs can close the gap
How many jobs required programming languages?
How high is the share of digital DNA?
Strategic trends
A powerful way to analyze the data in addition to the skill taxonomy is provided through strategic trends. Examples of strategic trends are Internet of Things or Sales Automation. All these trends require not just one skill, but many. It allows you to answer questions, like Which companies have IoT capabilities?
Here you can find a few skills which are listed under the Internet of Things strategic trend:
- NarrowBand IOT
- Ultra Narrow Band (UNB)
- MindSphere
- 5G
- Low-Power Wide-Area Network (LPWAN)
In addition to the existing trend library, you can define another trends.
Next step
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